Why Democrats *really* needed that New Mexico special election win
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Unless you’re a MAJOR political junkie, you likely missed that there was a special election to fill an open New Mexico congressional seat on Tuesday night.
And because a Democrat — state Rep. Melanie Stansbury — won (and won easily) in a strongly Democratic district (Joe Biden carried it by 23 points in 2020), ho hum. Nothing to see here.
But like a duck gliding on top of the water while furiously paddling underneath it, Stansbury’s wide win was the result of a major Democratic effort aimed at avoiding even a sniff of competitiveness.
National party luminaries like first lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff traveled to the district to ensure the Democratic base was energized.
And, as The New York Times’ Jonathan Martin wrote:
“House Democrats and their allies in the nation’s capital also showered their nominee in New Mexico with an infusion of money in the final weeks of the race.”
As of May 12, Stansbury had raised $1.3 million for the race as compared with $395,000 for Republican state Sen. Mark Moores. (Moores loaned himself another $200,000.)
Democrats did all of this because they were (and are) well aware of what a narrow Stansbury win (or even a loss) would have meant for their already difficult prospects of holding on to their narrow House majority come November 2022.
Had Stansbury eked out a win, it would have been the talk of the political world today. Republicans almost won a seat that Biden had carried by 23 points in 2020! The tide is turning against Democrats! All the dire history of a president’s party getting walloped in his first midterm elections is repeating itself!
And to be clear, that still might all happen. Given the narrowness of the Democratic majority and historic trends, Republicans have to be considered the favorites for the majority next year.
But what Democrats avoided on Tuesday night was a full-blown panic among their members and their major donors about what the next 17 months will hold.
A Stansbury loss (or close win) would have likely been the last straw for some Democratic incumbents considering whether they want to go for one more term. Now those incumbents can be reassured by her comfortable win that the winds of change aren’t blowing that strongly just yet.
The Point: Winning (and winning big) in special elections matters hugely in a national political climate where everyone is hunting for clues about the next big cataclysm. The Democratic dream of holding the majority after 2022 lives for another day following Stansbury’s win.
