Exit polls: High inflation dominates voters’ views in the midterm elections

CNN

By Ariel Edwards-Levy and Tami Luhby, CNN

Soaring prices were top of mind for voters as they cast ballots in this year’s midterm elections, according to the preliminary results of the national and state exit polls conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Nearly a third of voters said inflation was the issue that mattered most in deciding how they voted for House candidates. And more than 7 in 10 of them opted for Republicans.

Inflation also dominated in most of the exit polls conducted in 11 key states. At least two-thirds of those concerned about high prices in several crucial states cast ballots for Republican Senate candidates.

Consumers have been contending with soaring prices for food, gas and other essentials for more than a year as inflation has hovered around 40-year highs.

Around three-quarters of voters nationally said the economy is “poor” or “not good,” and the same share said that inflation has caused them severe or moderate hardship. About two-thirds said that gas prices have been causing them hardship.

Voters have a dour view about the way things are going in the country generally, with more than 7 in 10 saying they are “dissatisfied” or “angry.”

The exit poll results are in line with pre-election polling, as well as consumer confidence surveys, all of which show that Americans are worried about the state of the economy.

Though President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have tried to tout the measures they’ve taken to lower costs, many voters aren’t giving them credit. Just under half of voters for House candidates said Biden’s policies are hurting the country, while only around one-third said they are helping, exit polls found.

Even Biden’s plan to forgive some student loan debt has not rustled up widespread support. Roughly half of voters approve of the effort, while nearly the same share disapprove.

Despite voters’ angst about the economy, the Republicans’ red wave does not seem to have fully materialized. Abortion was also a significant factor in the election, with more than a quarter of voters listing it as a top issue. About 61% said they were unhappy with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, and about 7 in 10 of those voters backed a Democratic House candidate.

Here are more takeaways from CNN’s preliminary 2022 national and state exit polls.

Voters who valued ‘honesty and integrity’ favored Fetterman

Pennsylvania voters who most valued “honesty and integrity” in their Senate candidate favored Democrat John Fetterman over Republican Mehmet Oz, according to the early results of the Pennsylvania exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Fetterman also won among voters who said they wanted a candidate who cared about people like them, while Oz won among the smaller bloc of voters who prioritized a candidate sharing their values.

CNN projects that Fetterman will defeat Oz to win the open Pennsylvania Senate race, flipping a Republican-held seat.

A majority of female voters, White college-educated voters, voters of color and political independents in the state supported Fetterman, the exit poll finds, while most male voters and White voters without college degrees supported Oz.

Most voters, about 53%, said they disapproved of President Joe Biden’s job performance. But roughly 14% of those who disapproved of Biden cast their ballots for Fetterman, as did nearly all of those who approved of the president. A slim majority of voters in the state said that Biden was not a factor in their vote, with most also saying former President Donald Trump did not play a role.

Voters were close to evenly split on whether or not Oz’s views were too extreme, while about 53% said Fetterman’s views were not.

Voters in Pennsylvania were closely split over whether Fetterman’s health was good enough to represent the state effectively. Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, suffered a near fatal stroke days before the May Democratic primary.

But a majority of voters said that Oz has not lived in the commonwealth long enough to represent it effectively. Oz has said he moved to Pennsylvania in late 2020 after living in New Jersey for decades.

2:05 a.m. ET Wednesday / Ariel Edwards-Levy and Tami Luhby

Most voters don’t want Biden to run in 2024

More than two-thirds of voters for House candidates don’t want President Joe Biden to run for reelection in 2024, according to the early results of the national exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

More than 7 in 10 independent voters and roughly 9 in 10 Republican voters said they don’t want Biden to be in the 2024 presidential campaign. Fewer than 6 in 10 Democratic voters thought he should run.

Just under 6 in 10 independent voters have an unfavorable view of Biden, and about the same share disapprove of the job he’s doing as president.

Only 1 in 10 Democratic voters have an unfavorable view of the president and slightly more disapprove of his job performance.

More than 9 in 10 GOP voters have an unfavorable view of Biden and disapprove of the job he’s doing.

When it comes to former President Donald Trump, two-thirds of independent voters and more than 9 in 10 Democratic voters have an unfavorable view of him. Just over three-quarters of GOP voters have a favorable view.

Independent voters comprise about a quarter of the electorate, while Democratic voters are roughly one-third and Republican voters are just over one-third of the electorate.

12:59 a.m. ET Wednesday / Tami Luhby

Vance draws support from suburban and rural voters, as well as from men, White voters and older voters

Nearly 6 in 10 suburban voters and nearly the same share of rural voters favored GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance over his Democratic rival, US Rep. Tim Ryan, which helped the Republican clinch the open seat, according to preliminary results of the Ohio exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Also, nearly 6 in 10 men who cast ballots voted for Vance, about the same share as White voters who picked the GOP candidate. More than half of Buckeye State voters age 45 and older and voters without college degrees opted for Vance, as well.

Ryan was the preferred candidate of just over half of women who voted, college-educated voters and younger voters. Roughly half of independent voters cast ballots for the Democrat. Just under 6 in 10 voters who live in Ohio cities went for Ryan, as did more than three-quarters of voters of color in the state.

Nearly 6 in 10 voters from union households voted for Ryan, according to the exit poll later on Wednesday morning. Initially, the exit poll had shown that about the same share supported Vance.

Voters who said they were most concerned about crime, inflation and immigration broke for Vance, while those who thought abortion and gun policy were top issues selected Ryan.

Vance was the choice of voters who wanted a candidate who shared their values, but Ryan was supported by those looking for a candidate who cares about people like them and a candidate who has honesty and integrity.

1:15 p.m. ET Wednesday / Tami Luhby

About half of New Hampshire voters saw Don Bolduc’s views as ‘too extreme’

About half of New Hampshire voters called Republican Senate candidate Don Bolduc’s views “too extreme,” according to the early results of the New Hampshire exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research. Only about 43% said the same of his Democratic rival, incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan.

CNN projects that Hassan will win a second Senate term in New Hampshire, defeating the Trump-backed Bolduc.

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating in the state is negative, per the exit poll, with only about 42% of voters approving. But roughly 1 in 5 Biden disapprovers, nevertheless, cast their vote for Hassan.

Roughly three-quarters of voters in the state — including similar shares of both candidates’ supporters — said that party control of the Senate was very important to their vote.

12:59 a.m. ET Wednesday / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Most voters express at least some confidence in fairness of elections in their states

Nationally, more than 9 in 10 Democrats who voted in this year’s midterms said they were at least somewhat confident that elections in their state were being conducted fairly and accurately, according to early national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research. That’s a level of confidence shared by about 8 in 10 independents, and a smaller two-thirds of Republicans.

While Democrats’ confidence was robust across most key battleground states, Republicans’ views of the election system varied much more significantly by state.

Roughly 8 in 10 Republicans in Florida, New Hampshire, Texas and Ohio said they were confident that their state’s elections were accurate and fair, as did more than 7 in 10 in Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin.

But only about 6 in 10 Republicans in Michigan, Nevada and Arizona said they were confident in their state’s elections. And in Pennsylvania, only about half expressed such confidence.

Voters were also deeply concerned about the state of the country’s democracy. About 3 in 10 said that they viewed democracy in the US today as at least somewhat secure, with about two-thirds feeling that democracy in the country is somewhat or very threatened.

Slightly over 6 in 10 voters accepted that Biden legitimately won the presidency in 2020, while slightly over one-third denied the results of that election.

Updated 11:39 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Voters who disliked both parties broke for Republicans

Most voters in this year’s election view one party positively, and the other negatively — nationally, about 4 in 10 have a favorable view of only the Democratic Party, and a similar share have a favorable view of only the Republican Party, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research. Unsurprisingly, these voters almost unanimously supported their favored party in their district’s congressional election.

But there’s also a smaller bloc of voters — about 11% of the electorate, nationwide — who dislike both parties. This group broke in favor of the Republicans, with nearly 6 in 10 favoring a GOP House candidate this year. That’s a shift from 2018, when voters who disliked both parties were about evenly split in their vote.

Voters who were most upset with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade differed from those who felt less profoundly unhappy with the decision, the exit polls show. Those who were angry about the overturning of Roe (about 39% of the electorate) overwhelmingly voted Democratic for the House (about 85% picked the Democratic candidate). Those who were dissatisfied but not angry (about 21% of the electorate) narrowly favored the GOP.

There was also a difference between voters who were most pessimistic about the economy, and those who felt less strongly negative. While nearly 9 in 10 voters who said the economy was poor voted for a GOP House candidate, about 6 in 10 who described the economy as “not so good” backed a Democratic candidate.

To some extent, these divides reflect the partisan differences already baked into views on abortion and the economy. Voters who considered themselves Democrats were roughly 59 points more than voters who considered themselves Republican to say they were angry about Roe v. Wade being overturned. Republicans, meanwhile, were about 28 points likelier than Democrats to call the economy poor.

9:55 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Florida voters weigh in on Trump and DeSantis

What do Florida voters think about the possibility two Florida men could run for president in 2024? Exit polls from the Sunshine State offer some clues.

With Donald Trump signaling a potential announcement next week, 33% of Florida voters said they want to see the former president run in 2024, according to the preliminary results of the Florida exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

There appears to be more of an appetite for a bid by Ron DeSantis, with 45% of Florida voters saying they want the state’s governor — who CNN projects will win reelection — to seek the presidency in 2024.

DeSantis’ strength is reflected in the Florida exit polls, which show the governor winning Latinos in the state by 13 points. In 2020, Trump trailed Biden among Latino voters in Florida by 7 points. DeSantis also held a slight edge among independents, whom Biden carried in the state by 11 points. Those could be selling points if DeSantis and Trump collide in a 2024 GOP primary.

9:55 p.m. ET / Terence Burlij

Pennsylvania voters are split over Fetterman’s health

Voters in Pennsylvania are split over whether Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman‘s health is good enough to represent the state effectively, according to the preliminary results of the Pennsylvania exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Fetterman, Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor, suffered a near-fatal stroke days before he won the May Democratic primary.

But a majority of voters said that Mehmet Oz, the Republican candidate for Senate, has not lived in the commonwealth long enough to represent it effectively. More than 4 in 10 said he had.

Oz has said he moved to Pennsylvania in late 2020 after living in New Jersey for decades.

Voters also split over which candidate’s views are too extreme with more than 4 in 10 picking Fetterman and the same share selecting Oz.

More than one-third of Pennsylvania voters said that they care most about whether a candidate shares their values and whether a candidate has honesty and integrity. About 2 in 10 said the most important quality is that a candidate cares about people like them. Fewer than one in 10 said having the right experience matters most.

Men and women who cast ballots split their support, with more than half of men voting for Oz and more than half of women voting for Fetterman. Among independent voters, who made up about a quarter of the electorate, more than half voted for Fetterman.

For voters who thought that abortion was the most important issue, more than three quarters supported Fetterman. They made up just over one-third of the electorate.

But among those who said inflation was the most pressing issue, more than three-quarters cast ballots for Oz. They made up more than a quarter of the electorate.

8:44 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Vast majority of North Carolina voters think the economy is not in good shape

Roughly 8 in 10 North Carolina voters said the economy is “poor” or “not good,” according to the preliminary results of the North Carolina Exit Poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

More than three-quarters of voters in the state said inflation has caused them and their family severe or moderate hardship.

About half of those who cast ballots said that President Joe Biden’s policies are hurting the country, while only 35% think they are helping.

About 4 in 10 North Carolina voters approve of Biden, while more than half disapprove.

8:19 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Ohio voters think the economy is weak

More than three-quarters of Ohio voters said the nation’s economy was “poor” or “not so good,” according to the preliminary results of the Ohio Exit Poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

And nearly three-quarters of Buckeye State voters said inflation has caused their family severe or moderate hardship, with nearly 2 in 10 saying their difficulties were severe.

More than half of those who cast ballots said that President Joe Biden’s policies are hurting, while about one-third said they are helping.

The president is not that popular among Ohio voters — more than half disapprove of him, with more than 4 in 10 approving.

7:47 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Warnock loses some support among Black and Hispanic Georgians

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock of Georgia who is locked in tight reelection race with Republican Herschel Walker, lost some support among Black and Hispanic voters in Tuesday’s closely watched election, compared with the special runoff election the Democrat won in 2021, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

The votes in Georgia continue to be counted, but the race is widely expected to be close.

Roughly 9 in 10 Black voters and nearly 6 in 10 Hispanic voters in Georgia supported Warnock, but he lost several percentage points among each group, the preliminary exit polls found.

Warnock also shed a few percentage points of support among men who cast ballots and among voters age 64 and younger. However, the senator gained a small amount of support among White voters, who make up nearly two-thirds of the electorate, and among senior citizens.

Still, Walker was the candidate of choice among more than two-thirds of White voters, as well as among a majority of men who cast ballots.

A majority of women who voted and around 8 in 10 non-White voters opted for Warnock.

More than half of voters age 45 and older cast ballots for Walker, while nearly 6 in 10 younger voters selected Warnock.

7:47 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Warnock holds edge among Georgia voters when it comes to showing ‘good judgment’

Georgia voters were more likely to say that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has good judgment than they were to say the same of his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, according to the preliminary results of the Georgia exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research. But more said Warnock holds views that are too extreme than said the same about Walker.

Just shy of half, about 46%, said only Warnock shows good judgment, with about 28% saying only Walker does, and nearly a fifth that neither candidate does.

Voters in Georgia were close to evenly split on whether or not Warnock’s views were too extreme. Slightly more than 4 in 10 said Walker’s views were too extreme, with just over half saying they were not.

Asked which candidate quality mattered most to their Senate vote, 36% of Georgia voters said they wanted a candidate who shared their values, 32% a candidate who had honesty and integrity, 19% a candidate who cared about people like them, and 8% someone who had the right experience.

7:08 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Pennsylvania voters are not enamored with either Biden or Trump

More than 4 in 10 of Pennsylvania voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job, but a majority disapprove of the president, who was born and raised in Scranton, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Voters in the commonwealth did not have a high opinion of former President Donald Trump either. Just 4 in 10 had a favorable opinion, while nearly 6 in 10 had an unfavorable opinion.

Meanwhile, just over half of Pennsylvania voters said Biden was not a factor in their vote. For those who said the president was a factor, more than 1 in 10 said they support him, while nearly a third said they oppose him.

More than half of Pennsylvania voters also said that Trump was not a factor in their vote. For those who said the former president was a factor, close to 1 in 5 said they support him, while about a quarter oppose him.

6:52 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Voters trust Republicans more on inflation and crime but lean toward Democrats on abortion

More voters trust Republicans than Democrats to handle inflation and crime, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Roughly half of voters said they trusted GOP candidates on those two issues, while more than 4 in 10 voters said they trusted Democratic candidates.

When it comes to the issue of abortion, however, roughly half of voters said they trusted Democratic candidates, compared with more than 4 in 10 voters who said they trusted Republican candidates.

6:30 p.m. ET / Tami Luhby

Voter views on Trump are even more negative than on Biden

While voters in this year’s midterm election hold negative views of President Joe Biden, their views of his predecessor are even more negative, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Only about 37% of voters in this year’s midterms expressed a favorable view of former President Donald Trump, with around 6 in 10 viewing him unfavorably. About 16% of voters said their House vote this year was intended to express support for Trump, with just under 3 in 10 saying it’s intended to express opposition and the rest saying that Trump was not a factor.

Voters’ opinions of the GOP were slightly more positive than their views of Trump, with about 43% viewing the Republican Party favorably and just over half viewing it unfavorably. More than half, about 54%, say the GOP is too extreme.

6:00 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Republican and Democratic voters differ in their top issues

There’s a significant partisan divide in voters’ priorities and attitudes this year, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Nearly half of voters who supported a GOP House candidate called inflation their top issue, with fewer than 15% picking any other issue as their priority. Among voters who backed a Democratic candidate, about 44% called abortion their top issue, with 15% or fewer picking any other issue.

Meanwhile, midterm voters were mostly opposed to the US Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, according to the preliminary national exit polls.

Slightly fewer than 4 in 10 said they felt enthusiastic or satisfied about the decision, while about 21% said they felt dissatisfied, and roughly 4 in 10 that they were angry.

About 60% of all voters said that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, up from 51% among voters who turned out for the 2020 general election.

5:52 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

2022 voters may skew older compared with 2018

Early indications suggest that this year’s midterm electorate may look older than the voters in the 2018 midterms, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Only about a tenth of voters in this election were under age 30, while roughly one-third were age 65 or older. In 2018, about 13% were under 30, and about 26% were 65 or older.

The electorate this year was split roughly between those who generally identify as Democrats (about 34%) and those who generally identify as Republicans (about 35%), with the remainder consisting of political independents and members of other parties. In 2018, Democrats made up a slightly larger voting bloc, about 37%.

About 76% of voters were White, and about 24% were voters of color. White voters with college degrees look to be a slightly larger share of the electorate this year — about 40% per the preliminary data, compared with 31% four years ago. By contrast, voters of color without a college degree look to have made up a slightly smaller share of the electorate this year.

5:29 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Inflation is top issue for voters, followed by abortion

Inflation tops voters’ list of concerns in this year’s midterm elections, with abortion a close second, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

Approximately one-third called inflation the most important issue to their vote, with about 27% citing abortion. The remainder were roughly divided between picking crime, gun policy and immigration as their chief concerns.

The electorate’s views of the economy are largely gloomy. Only about one-quarter of voters felt positively about the current condition of the economy, with roughly three-quarters viewing it negatively — and about 4 in 10 saying it’s downright poor.

That’s more pessimistic than in the 2018 midterms, when 68% of voters said the state of the economy was excellent or good, and the 2020 presidential election, when 49% said the same.

About 46% of voters in this election say that their family’s financial situation had worsened over the past two years, while only about 1 in 5 said it had improved.

More than three-quarters of voters in this year’s election say that inflation has caused hardship for them and their family over the past year, with about 20% saying it’s been a severe hardship. And about 6 in 10 say that gas prices, specifically, have recently been a hardship.

5:23 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Voters unhappy with the state of the nation and largely negative on Biden

Voters in this year’s midterm elections are broadly unhappy with the state of the nation and hold largely negative views of President Joe Biden, according to the preliminary national results of the exit poll conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research.

More than 7 in 10 said they were less than satisfied with the way things are going in the country, with about one-third saying they were not just dissatisfied but angry with the state of the nation.

Biden’s approval rating stands at about 45% among voters in this year’s election — nearly identical to then-Donald Trump’s 45% approval rating four years ago among 2018 midterm voters. And voters in this election were more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Biden as they were to strongly approve of him.

Just shy of half of voters this year said that Biden’s policies are mostly hurting the country, with about 36% saying his policies are mostly helping, and the rest that they’re making no difference.

Many voters didn’t see their congressional vote as a referendum on the president — close to half said that Biden was not a factor in their vote, while about 18% said their vote was to express support for Biden, and about one-third that it was to express opposition to him.

Updated 5:13 p.m. ET / Ariel Edwards-Levy

Methodology

The 2022 national exit polls include interviews with thousands of voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest exit poll numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results.

CNN Exit Polls are a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. They were conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 250 polling locations. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted in-person at 72 early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 14,657 respondents have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The Pennsylvania Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and telephone and online polls measuring the views of absentee by-mail and early voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 45 polling locations in Pennsylvania among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 2,586 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The Georgia Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 40 polling locations in Georgia among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted in-person at early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 4,364 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The Ohio Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 25 polling locations in Ohio among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted in-person at early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 3,464 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The North Carolina Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 35 polling locations in North Carolina among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted in-person at early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 3,602 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The Florida Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and in-person interviews, telephone and online polls measuring the views of early and absentee by-mail voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 30 polling locations in Florida among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted in-person at early voting locations, by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 3,855 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

The New Hampshire Exit Poll is a combination of in-person interviews with Election Day voters and telephone and online polls measuring the views of absentee by-mail and early voters. It was conducted by Edison Research on behalf of the National Election Pool. In-person interviews on Election Day were conducted at a random sample of 30 polling locations in New Hampshire among Election Day voters. The results also include interviews with early and absentee voters conducted by phone or online. Results for the full sample of 2,004 voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

This story has been updated with additional information.

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