Monsoon Season 2026 Outlook
Monsoon season is ALMOST here, and it's important to make sure you are always ready in case severe weather hits. Take a look at our 2026 Monsoon Outlook, so you can prepare now for the upcoming Monsoon season.
YUMA, Ariz. (KYMA) - It’s getting to that time of year where extreme heat and severe storms will be a threat here in the Desert Southwest in the coming summer months.
The National Weather Service Phoenix released their 2026 Monsoon Outlook which predicts that this season is expected to be a warmer and chances for above-normal rainfall.
Take a look at our June, July, and August temperature and precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures for the Desert Southwest is expected to trend this Monsoon season 40-50% with above-normal temperatures.
Precipitation for the Desert Southwest is looking between a 33-55% for above-normal rainfall this Monsoon season.
WHAT IS MONSOON: The monsoon is not a storm, it’s a seasonal shift in our winds which causes storms to form.
In late June and early July winds flow out of the south and southeast, bringing in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico.
Those southerly winds bring in moisture to the Desert Southwest.
Then our extremely hot temperatures causes all that moisture to rise, allowing thunderstorms to form.
Take a look at the impacts that come with the Monsoon Season.
WINDS & DUST: These monsoon storms can pop up quickly causing strong and damaging winds that can generate dense blowing dust.
Remember if you ever encounter any blowing dust always PULL ASIDE, STAY ALIVE.
FLASH FLOODING: Heavy rain, powerful lightning, and flash flooding is also part of the monsoon.
The number one thunderstorm-related killer averaging 2 to 3 deaths in Arizona each year is flash flooding.
Remember to TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
It's also important to know the difference between a Flash Flood WATCH and A Flash Flood WARNING.
A Watch is a sign to be PREPARED when flooding can occur. And a Warning is to TAKE ACTION because flooding is occurring.
LIGHTNING: Lightning averages seasonal and hourly. Over half a million lightning strikes per season. Lightning (and rain) most likely from noon through early evening.
Keep in mind when thunder roars, GO INDOORS!
LIGHTNING: All objects such as trees and skyscrapers are more likely than the surrounding ground to produce one of the connecting sparks and so are more likely to be struck by lightning.
Mountains also make good targets. However, this does not always mean tall objects will be struck. Lightning can strike the ground in an open field even if the tree line is close by.
WILDFIRE CONCERNS: Dry lightning (thunderstorms with little precipitation) are often a trigger for wildfire starts early in the monsoon. Also, drought conditions with dry fuels will exacerbate wildfire risk this season.
Here is a look at wildfire safety tips to make sure we do our part to not cause any fires this monsoon season.
EXTREME HEAT: During the summer extreme heat isn't anything new for us here in Desert Southwest. But when we have higher moisture levels it makes it feel hotter than the actually air temperature due to the higher humidity levels.
Heat safety is extremely important during the Monsoon Season.
RECREATION SAFETY: During the Monsoon Season always check the weather forecast before participating in recreational activities such as hiking, camping, or boating. Take a look at some of the helpful tips.
DOWNBURST WINDS: A downburst is defined as a concentrated, severe downdraft that induces an outward burst of damaging winds at the ground. This process occurs when rain inside the downdraft area evaporates. A severe downburst can cause damage equivalent to an EF-0 or EF-1 tornado.
DEBRIS FLOWS: A debris flow is a moving mass of loose mud, sand, soil, rock & water that moves down an area of steep terrain.
Now how much rainfall is average for Yuma?
Yuma’s average monsoon rainfall is 0.97 inches.
But no matter how much rain that falls this season the Desert Southwest will have all risks for significant and dangerous weather that can occur.
Now these storms don’t happen every day we may get sudden activity then breaks from it for days or even weeks.
Other factors to be aware of during Monsoon Season and El Nino and Tropical Cyclones.
EL NINO: What is it? EL Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Greater than 90% chance that an El Nino develops leading up to or during the course of the monsoon. El Nino tends to result in increased eastern Pacific tropical cyclone activity that can bring increased moisture and rainfall. Especially in August-September to Arizona.
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC: With a developing El Nino the warmer waters may lead to stronger hurricanes this year.
Most monsoons see deeper tropical moisture being pulled north into the state, especially later in the monsoon season.
Even though the monsoon season officially begins June 15th, we have to wait until July for the atmosphere to moisten up.
Then severe weather is possible until the end of September.
You can refer to our Monsoon Resource safety and tip guide anytime throughout the season to make sure you always stay ready and prepared for any active storms.
Also, make sure to keep on out for when Chief Weather Forecaster Melissa Zaremba issued Weather Authority First Alert Action Days, so you know when severe weather is coming and you can TAKE ACTION.
