Tracking a Super El Niño forecasted to arrive this fall and winter
YUMA, Ariz. (KYMA) - According to the Climate Prediction Center, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
El Niño strengthened over the past month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
An El Niño Advisory is issued by the Climate Prediction Center and is in effect. You can read more here.
What is El Niño? El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
This means temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal while rainfall trends above-average.
During El Niño, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas.
The warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. With this shift, areas in the northern U.S. and Canada are dryer and warmer than usual. But in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Southeast, these periods are wetter than usual and have increased flooding.
El Niño causes the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the Southern U.S. and warmer and drier conditions in the North.
El Niño also has a strong effect on marine life off the Pacific coast. During normal conditions, upwelling brings water from the depths to the surface; this water is cold and nutrient-rich.
During El Niño, upwelling weakens or stops altogether. Without the nutrients from the deep, there are fewer phytoplankton off the coast. This affects fish that eat phytoplankton and, in turn, affects everything that eats fish. The warmer waters can also bring tropical species, like yellowtail and albacore tuna, into areas that are normally too cold.
RAIN OUTLOOK: On the Climate Prediction Center, this fall and winter is looking to be trending wetter than normal here in the Desert Southwest. Take a look at our precipitation outlook for the fall-winter season (Oct-Dec 2026).
However, looking ahead to the end of 2026 and into early 2027, the Desert Southwest is trending 50-60% higher with above-normal rainfall being possible.
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: Also, this fall and winter temperatures are also looking to be trending slightly above-average for our area instead of cooler than normal.
Looking into the end of the year and into early next year temperatures are looking to be trending the same with slightly warmer than average temperatures.
Now that we are in the fall season and winter is around the corner, I will continue to track this El Niño weather pattern and bring updates.
Right now, the Desert Southwest is trending to experience a slight above-normal temperatures, but wetter Fall and Winter season from this Super El Niño.
